Wednesday 12 May 2010

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The only trouble is that Spain, Portugal, and Greece are currently governed by left-wing socialist governments, not "right-wing" dictators or military regimes. What's more, the Socialists trounced the center-right in the most recent Greek elections in October 2009 in part because the conservatives were politically unpopular for pushing for an austerity package aimed at getting the country's fiscal house in order. From a New York Times article at the time:

In conceding defeat, Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis said he had failed to persuade Greeks to accept the two years of austerity measures he had called for to steer the country out of its economic crisis. “The voters did not approve of this policy. It was their choice, and I respect it,” he said.

Mr. Karamanlis also stepped down as leader of the New Democracy Party, which suffered its worst performance since the restoration of Greek democracy in 1974 after years of military dictatorship. He said he would call a party congress to elect a new leader within a month.

Mr. Karamanlis, 53, called early elections last month, two years into a mandate dogged by corruption scandals and economic crisis, aiming to win a fresh mandate and stave off labor unrest. He had called for a freeze in public-sector wages to fight rising debt and unemployment, but he had difficulty pushing through important economic and structural reforms because he governed with a one-vote margin in Parliament.

Mr. Papandreou, 57, instead favored increased spending, including a $4.5 billion stimulus package to revive the Greek economy though infrastructure projects and environmentally sustainable development, while cracking down on tax evasion. Experts estimate that Greece loses $17.5 billion annually in unpaid income taxes and $13 billion in unpaid payroll taxes.

The victory by the Socialists here was a rare event for Europe, where the left has been losing ground and has often been unable to capitalize on the financial crisis for its own political gain.

But many Greek voters appeared to be voting against Mr. Karamanlis as much as for the Socialists. After two decades of Socialist rule, Mr. Karamanlis was elected in 2004 promising to restore faith in government.

For his part, Cramer failed to correct Matthews, agreeing with Matthews that:

You have a currency [the euro] that's made up of [countries run by] profligate right-wingers non-profligate, actually prudent somewhat left-wingers. I'm talking about Germany. Germany is the rock bed here.

Germany is governed by a center-right coalition led by conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel.

—Ken Shepherd is Managing Editor of NewsBusters. You can follow him on Twitter here


Still, the move supplied the decisiveness – and the big headline – the markets had been craving. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 405 points to close at 10,785 – its biggest gain since March 2009 – and recouped two-thirds of last week's losses. At its peak Monday, the Dow was up nearly 455 points.



Broader U.S. indexes outpaced the Dow's 3.9 percent rise, while gains in several European markets topped 9 percent.



The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 48.85, or 4.4 percent, to 1,159.73. The Nasdaq composite index rose 109.03, or 4.8 percent, to 2,374.67.



The euro bounced back from 14-month lows around $1.25 on Friday to over $1.30 on Monday, reversing the ominous slides and sense of panic from last week.



The crisis had raised fears of a panic like the one following the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008 and prompted nervous banks to cut back on lending to businesses and hammered stock markets.



A weaker euro and financial and economic disaster in Europe would hurt U.S. exports, and the U.S. Federal Reserve pitched in by agreeing to make dollars available to the European Central Bank in exchange for euros. The ECB will then loan those dollars at fixed rates to banks in Europe; the interest eventually goes to the Fed when it swaps the euros back for dollars at the same exchange rate as the original transaction.



European banks need dollars to lend to companies across the continent. European companies with operations in the U.S. pay their employees in dollars and buy raw materials with the U.S. currency. Also, oil and other commodities are priced in dollars around the world.



But because of the debt crisis, private banks in the U.S. have been leery of making loans to banks in Europe. Hence the need for the currency swaps between the central banks.



Analysts warned, however, that the emergency bailout fund would do nothing to reverse Europe's soaring public debt – and could even worsen it.



"The last thing you give a drunk is another drink," said Jeremy Batstone-Carr of Charles Stanley stockbrokers.



"The process of providing a bridging facility for Greece and possibly other indebted nations will add significantly to regional debt and deficit ratios without actually solving the underlying problem."



EU officials said the next step was to more closely coordinate member nations' economies, including tougher rules to keep them from running up too much debt. The eurozone has a limit on deficits of 3 percent of gross domestic product, but that was widely ignored.



"The key missing pieces ... are steps to strengthen fiscal discipline and structural reforms," said economist Annunziata. "I remain skeptical on this front, as greater fiscal integration at this stage requires deeper political integration."



Still, he noted, some experts argue the "current crisis is exactly what was needed to trigger a new quantum leap in European integration. I hope that turns out to be the case."



European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said European governments need to consider pooling their national powers and create a joint economic government.



"We can't have a monetary union without some form of economic and political union and that is our big task for the coming weeks and the coming months," he said.



He said he would draft tougher rules for EU leaders to discuss in October that go beyond current EU limits on debt and deficit.



The core problem is near-zero economic growth, high unemployment and governments unwilling to take painful steps to get people to work more and longer.



Simon Tilford, an economist at the Center for European Reform think tank, warned that EU governments so far haven't come up with anything "game changing."



"What Europe needs is a growth pact because without growth, public finances aren't going to be sustainable," Tilford said. "The bond markets are going to be forcing them to make those kind of changes."



Even EU president Van Rompuy warned that the bloc risks irrelevance and the end of its expensive welfare programs if it can't speed up economic growth, forecast to expand by just 1 percent this year.



"With 1 percent growth we can't finance our social model any more. With 1 percent structural growth we can't play a role in the world," he told the World Economic Forum in Brussels. "We need to double the economic growth potential that we now have."



Many are skeptical that can be achieved.



Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics, said the rescue package won't stop euro economies like Greece, Portugal and Spain from suffering "a long period of extreme economic weakness" and won't erase fears of a default or collapse of the euro.



"We still see the euro weakening further to around $1.20 by the end of this year," she said.



Others worried over the prospect of EU policymakers stepping away from the strict rules that underpin the euro.



Marc Ostwald, a market strategist at Monument Securities, said Monday's rewriting of the rule book "in just a couple of hours" could foreshadow "a lot more in the way of absolute risk priced into government bond yields."



The European Central Bank's agreement to buy government bonds also spurred concern that it had caved in to political pressure, ironically weakening a key euro institution in order to save the currency.



"It will be hard not to see this as a loss of credibility and independence for the ECB," Annunziata said.



Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert said the rescue could spur irresponsible behavior by other eurozone nations if they know there's a bailout when they overspend.



Dutch bank NIBC said in a research note that the only long-term solution for countries like Greece was an eventual debt restructuring – the polite term for a technical default, with lenders unlikely to receive anywhere close to the full value of their loans to the government.



___



AP Business writers Pan Pylas in London and Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Associated Press writers Frank Jordans in Basel and Matt Moore in Frankfurt contributed to this report.








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Still, the move supplied the decisiveness – and the big headline – the markets had been craving. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 405 points to close at 10,785 – its biggest gain since March 2009 – and recouped two-thirds of last week's losses. At its peak Monday, the Dow was up nearly 455 points.



Broader U.S. indexes outpaced the Dow's 3.9 percent rise, while gains in several European markets topped 9 percent.



The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 48.85, or 4.4 percent, to 1,159.73. The Nasdaq composite index rose 109.03, or 4.8 percent, to 2,374.67.



The euro bounced back from 14-month lows around $1.25 on Friday to over $1.30 on Monday, reversing the ominous slides and sense of panic from last week.



The crisis had raised fears of a panic like the one following the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008 and prompted nervous banks to cut back on lending to businesses and hammered stock markets.



A weaker euro and financial and economic disaster in Europe would hurt U.S. exports, and the U.S. Federal Reserve pitched in by agreeing to make dollars available to the European Central Bank in exchange for euros. The ECB will then loan those dollars at fixed rates to banks in Europe; the interest eventually goes to the Fed when it swaps the euros back for dollars at the same exchange rate as the original transaction.



European banks need dollars to lend to companies across the continent. European companies with operations in the U.S. pay their employees in dollars and buy raw materials with the U.S. currency. Also, oil and other commodities are priced in dollars around the world.



But because of the debt crisis, private banks in the U.S. have been leery of making loans to banks in Europe. Hence the need for the currency swaps between the central banks.



Analysts warned, however, that the emergency bailout fund would do nothing to reverse Europe's soaring public debt – and could even worsen it.



"The last thing you give a drunk is another drink," said Jeremy Batstone-Carr of Charles Stanley stockbrokers.



"The process of providing a bridging facility for Greece and possibly other indebted nations will add significantly to regional debt and deficit ratios without actually solving the underlying problem."



EU officials said the next step was to more closely coordinate member nations' economies, including tougher rules to keep them from running up too much debt. The eurozone has a limit on deficits of 3 percent of gross domestic product, but that was widely ignored.



"The key missing pieces ... are steps to strengthen fiscal discipline and structural reforms," said economist Annunziata. "I remain skeptical on this front, as greater fiscal integration at this stage requires deeper political integration."



Still, he noted, some experts argue the "current crisis is exactly what was needed to trigger a new quantum leap in European integration. I hope that turns out to be the case."



European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said European governments need to consider pooling their national powers and create a joint economic government.



"We can't have a monetary union without some form of economic and political union and that is our big task for the coming weeks and the coming months," he said.



He said he would draft tougher rules for EU leaders to discuss in October that go beyond current EU limits on debt and deficit.



The core problem is near-zero economic growth, high unemployment and governments unwilling to take painful steps to get people to work more and longer.



Simon Tilford, an economist at the Center for European Reform think tank, warned that EU governments so far haven't come up with anything "game changing."



"What Europe needs is a growth pact because without growth, public finances aren't going to be sustainable," Tilford said. "The bond markets are going to be forcing them to make those kind of changes."



Even EU president Van Rompuy warned that the bloc risks irrelevance and the end of its expensive welfare programs if it can't speed up economic growth, forecast to expand by just 1 percent this year.



"With 1 percent growth we can't finance our social model any more. With 1 percent structural growth we can't play a role in the world," he told the World Economic Forum in Brussels. "We need to double the economic growth potential that we now have."



Many are skeptical that can be achieved.



Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics, said the rescue package won't stop euro economies like Greece, Portugal and Spain from suffering "a long period of extreme economic weakness" and won't erase fears of a default or collapse of the euro.



"We still see the euro weakening further to around $1.20 by the end of this year," she said.



Others worried over the prospect of EU policymakers stepping away from the strict rules that underpin the euro.



Marc Ostwald, a market strategist at Monument Securities, said Monday's rewriting of the rule book "in just a couple of hours" could foreshadow "a lot more in the way of absolute risk priced into government bond yields."



The European Central Bank's agreement to buy government bonds also spurred concern that it had caved in to political pressure, ironically weakening a key euro institution in order to save the currency.



"It will be hard not to see this as a loss of credibility and independence for the ECB," Annunziata said.



Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert said the rescue could spur irresponsible behavior by other eurozone nations if they know there's a bailout when they overspend.



Dutch bank NIBC said in a research note that the only long-term solution for countries like Greece was an eventual debt restructuring – the polite term for a technical default, with lenders unlikely to receive anywhere close to the full value of their loans to the government.



___



AP Business writers Pan Pylas in London and Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Associated Press writers Frank Jordans in Basel and Matt Moore in Frankfurt contributed to this report.








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London, 05 May 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed Portugal's Aa2 government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade, while the government's Prime-1 short-term rating was affirmed. Moody's expects that, in the event of a downgrade, Portugal's Aa2 ratings would fall by one, or at most two, notches. The review of Portugal's ratings -- which had been on negative outlook since October 2009 -- is expected to conclude within a three-month time horizon.

Today's rating action reflects the recent deterioration of Portugal's public finances as well as the economy's long-term growth challenges. "The review for possible downgrade will consider a repositioning of Portugal's ratings to reflect the potentially lasting deterioration in the government's debt metrics," says Anthony Thomas, Vice President-Senior Analyst in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group. "In the context of a small and slow-growing economy, such debt metrics may no longer be consistent with a Aa2 rating."

The weakening of Portugal's public finance position reflects the failure of successive administrations to consistently limit government budget deficits since Portugal joined the eurozone at its inception. "More recently, however, the government's has reiterated its objective to achieve or even surpass the deficit reduction targets published in its latest Stability and Growth Programme," says Mr. Thomas. "The well-structured debt profile means that refinancing risks are modest."

Moody's believes that increased risk discrimination in the financial markets may raise Portugal's financing costs for some time to come. Nonetheless, Moody's expects that debt service will remain very affordable in the near to medium term. Although its debt metrics may, on balance, turn out to be more consistent with a low Aa or a high A rating, the government's debt is neither unsustainable nor unbearable.

Portugal's growth challenges plus large fiscal deficits have led market participants to compare Portugal (and several other European countries) to Greece. Although Moody's believes that Greece faces far more serious fiscal difficulties than Portugal, the rating agency nevertheless sees an extended period of retrenchment for Portugal as inevitable until the country's domestic financial imbalances are corrected.

In addition to factors related to public debt sustainability, Moody's rating review will examine other aspects of the structural adjustment agenda -- in particular, the steps being taken by Portugal's policymakers to address the poor economic competitiveness and low domestic savings, which are at the root of the country's low trend growth rate. Moody's forecasts assume positive, albeit relatively slow, real economic growth.

"Portugal's growth problem is related more to its low productivity than its high costs per se," says Mr. Thomas. "The lack of a devaluation option creates stronger -- but not impossible -- headwinds for the country's economic recovery."

Portugal's country ceilings for bonds and bank deposits fall under the eurozone's regional ceilings and are therefore unaffected by this rating action.

The previous rating action on Portugal was implemented on 29 October 2009, when Moody's assigned a negative outlook to the government's Aa2 bond ratings.

The principal methodology used in rating the government of Portugal is Moody's Sovereign Bond Methodology, published in 2008, which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.

London

Pierre Cailleteau

Managing Director

Sovereign Risk Group

Moody's Investors Service Ltd. - England

JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456

SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

London
Arnaud Mares
Senior Vice President
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

London
Anthony Thomas
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454





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Sunday 2 May 2010

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This post is part of Mashable’s Spark of Genius series, which highlights a unique feature of startups. If you would like to have your startup considered for inclusion, please see the details here. The series is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark.

Name: Rec.fmclass="blippr-nobr">rec.fm

Quick Pitch: Trusted recommendations and social media for the social good. It’s class='blippr-nobr'>Aardvarkclass="blippr-nobr">Aardvark meets Amazon reviews meets Twitter and Facebook.

Genius Idea: Friends love to share information about great products with each other. According to a survey by Publicis last year, 46% of Facebookclass="blippr-nobr">Facebook users said they would discuss or recommend a product on Facebook, while another 44% have already recommended a product on Twitterclass="blippr-nobr">Twitter. And almost a third of respondents said they had learned about a product, service or brand via a social networking site.

Not only do friends love to recommend products to each other, but friends also trust these recommendations. According to Nielsen, recommendations from personal acquaintances is the most trusted form of advertising worldwide.

Enter Rec.fm. Rec.fm allows you to recommend products to your friends via your social networks in three easy steps. First, search for the product you want to recommend on their website. Next, explain in 140 characters or less why you’re recommending it. After completing the prompt to log in via Facebook or Twitter, you’ll then be given a shortened rec.fm URL to share information about the product via e-mail, Facebook, Twitter and nearly a dozen other social networking platforms. If someone makes a purchase via your recommendation, the charity of your choice will receive the majority of Rec.fm’s revenue from the sale — you are not compensated. You will also receive an acknowledgment of your contribution via e-mail.

I tried out the service myself by recommending an edition of one of my favorite novels, Howard’s End by E.M. Forester, to my Twitter followers. If anyone follows through on my referral, a percentage of the proceeds will go to the Red Cross.

The best part about the service, in my opinion, is that it lends credibility to your recommendations. Reviewers on blogs and other media outlets are often accused of being secretly compensated for the recommendations they make via affiliate marketer programs like Amazon’s. If you use rec.fm, readers will know that your recommendations are genuine because there is complete transparency about the compensation process. Even better, your favorite cause can benefit from your love of sharing great products with your networks.

Sponsored by Microsoft BizSpark

BizSpark is a startup program that gives you three-year access to the latest Microsoft development tools, as well as connecting you to a nationwide network of investors and incubators. There are no upfront costs, so if your business is privately owned, less than three years old, and generates less than U.S.$1 million in annual revenue, you can sign up today.

Entrepreneurs can take advantage of the Azure Services platform for their website hosting and storage needs. Microsoft recently announced the “new CloudApp()” contest – use the Azure Services Platform for hosting your .NET or class='blippr-nobr'>PHPclass="blippr-nobr">PHP app, and you could be the lucky winner of a USD 5000* (please see website for official rules and guidelines).”

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For more technology coverage, follow Mashable Tech on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook

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We will refresh this page regularly during the keynote. Please reload this page to see these updates.



9:45: Audience is getting seated.



10:01: Looks like there is a little delay. Keynote is now scheduled to start at 10:10 a.m. PST.



10:07: Rumor: Facebook and Microsoft will announce a new application partnership.




Image credit: Devin Reams.



10:11: Zuckerberg on stage.



10:12: "What we have to show you today will be one of the most transformative things for the Web we've ever done."



Open Graph: Puts people at the center of the Web. "The Web can become a semantically meaningful set of connections."





10:14: Recap of Facebook stats: 400 million users on Facebook, 100 million people use Facebook Connect.



"A lot of startups are requiring that their users use Facebook Connect. We want to make it simple to create these personalized experiences."



Policy updates: All permissions are now managed in one permissions dialog.



Cache: Developers can now store information for longer than 24 hours.



10:18: Facebook credits: More than 100 developers working with Facebook already.



10:18: Back to Open Graph: "Facebook only maps out the part of the social graph that relates to people." Others, like Yelp and Pandora map out the social graph around other topics.



10:21: There is no way to bring these different graphs together yet. Right now, developers use the stream metaphor, but the services don't understand these connections.



10:22: By connecting these graphs, Facebook will be able to show you restaurants your friends like, music your friends like, etc. "By doing this, the Web will get a whole lot better."



10:23: New Graph API: Makes it simple to read connections on FB. Based on a new standard.



New plugins for sites: Make your sites instantly social and personalized.



10:24: Example: See what your friends already liked on CNN. CNN won't know who you are or who your friends are.





On CNN homepage: See all your friends' activity.



10:25: Bret Taylor (formerly of Friendfeed) on stage.



10:27: How do you get people to feel comfortable with importing their Facebook friends?



Experience from Friendfeed: The only signup button that mattered was Facebook Connect, because that was the best way for people to find their friends.





10:28: New products: Social plugins: add social features with just one line of HTML.



Universal like button: A like button for the Web that will instantly share your like back to FB. Based on an iframe.



10:31: Activity streams plugin: Transport the FB news feed to your site.



10:31: Recommendations plugin: Show users articles on your site that they are most likely to like. Highly personalized.



Login plugin: See which of your friends already signed up for a given service.



Social bar: The "kitchen sink" of Facebook's new plugins. One bar at the bottom of the site will show all of these features.





10:33: Talking about the news feed: Open Graph will make the stream more useful. Allows you to markup your pages to tell Facebook what kind of real-world object your page represents. You can say, for example, that a page is about a band and where this band is from.







New section on your profile can now show which movies, songs, etc. you liked.



10:36: Launching with 30 partners today.



You can also subscribe by topics.



These likes and updates will point to sites outside of Facebook. "My identity is not just defined by Facebook but also by all of the things I do around the Web."



10:38: Graph API: Our attempt to re-architect the Facebook platform with simplicity and the Graph API in mind.



10:40: You can download all of the connections of a given user from the Graph API.





10:41: Search: You can search through all of the public updates on Facebook.



Real-time will be built-in. Facebook will ping developers when a user posts an update.



10:42: Facebook will use oAuth 2.0. "It's so much more awesome than our current system. Available for the Graph API and all of Facebook's existing APIs.







10:44: Zuckerberg back on stage.



Facebook expects to service a total of 1 billion like buttons today.



10:45: "The Web is at an important turning point today." Startups require their users to bring their real identity. "The default is now social."



10:46: What kind of products would be possible if Facebook partners already knew everything about their users?



Microsoft Docs.com: Online version of Microsoft's office suite. Collaborate with friends on documents.



All of the power of Microsoft Office - but with a built-in social experience.



Second example: Pandora. See what bands your friends like on Pandora.



10:50: Zuckerberg finishes the keynote with an anecdote about his girlfriend.